Middle East Decoded- Understanding Rivalries in The Muslim World

Origin of the Shia-Sunni Divide: The rift between Shia and Sunni Islam began shortly after the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632 CE. The division stems from a disagreement over who should be the rightful successor to the Prophet.

Sunni Perspective: Sunnis believe that leadership should be elected and thus support the caliphate of Abu Bakr, the Prophet’s close friend and father-in-law, as the rightful first caliph (leader) of the Muslim community.
Shia Perspective: Shia Muslims, on the other hand, believe that leadership should remain within the Prophet’s family and thus support Ali, the Prophet’s cousin and son-in-law, as the rightful first Imam (a spiritual and political leader). The term “Shia” is derived from “Shi’atu Ali,” which means “partisans of Ali.”

Demography:

Global Distribution: As mentioned, Sunnis constitute about 80-85% of the global Muslim population, making them the majority. Shias make up the remaining 15-20%. This makes Sunni Islam the largest Islamic sect.

Country-specific Distribution:

- Sunni-majority countries: Among countries with significant Muslim populations, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are primarily Sunni.
- Shia-majority countries: Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain stand out as countries with a majority Shia population or significant Shia presence. Iran, with its population of around 80 million (as of 2022), is predominantly Shia, making it the country with the largest Shia population in the world.

Tensions and Conflicts:

Iran-Saudi Arabia Proxy Conflict: This is an example of a geopolitical struggle where both regional powers, Iran (Shia-majority) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni-majority), compete for influence across the Middle East. They often support opposing sides in various regional conflicts.
Example: In Yemen, the Houthi rebels, who follow the Shia branch of Islam, are backed by Iran. In contrast, the Yemeni government, which is Sunni-majority, receives support from Saudi Arabia.
Sectarian Violence: Due to these geopolitical and historical religious differences, some regions in the Middle East have experienced sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni groups.
In Iraq, especially after the 2003 U.S. invasion, sectarian tensions escalated, leading to periods of violence between Sunni and Shia militias. This tension was further exacerbated with the rise of extremist groups like ISIS, which pursued an anti-Shia agenda.

IRAN – SAUDI ARABIA RIVALRY

The Iran-Saudi rivalry is multi-dimensional, rooted in historical events, religious differences, and strategic considerations. This rivalry has reshaped the geopolitics of the Middle East, with various regional players, including Israel, adjusting their strategies in response. While sectarian and ideological differences play a role, power dynamics, regional hegemony, and strategic interests remain at the heart of the ongoing tensions.

Historical Context:

Pahlavi Dynasty and Saudi Monarchy: Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, both Iran (under the Pahlavi dynasty) and Saudi Arabia maintained relatively cordial relations. They had shared interests, such as countering communism and regulating oil prices through OPEC.
1979 Iranian Revolution: The overthrow of the Shah in Iran and the establishment of an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini was a pivotal turning point. This revolution had a Shiite theocratic ideology, which positioned Iran in direct opposition to the Sunni monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia.

Ideological and Sectarian Differences:

Sunni vs. Shia: As previously mentioned, the Sunni-Shia divide has its roots in early Islamic history. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world, while Iran views itself as the protector of Shia Muslims globally.
Islamic Leadership: After the Iranian Revolution, Iran sought to export its revolutionary ideology across the Middle East, challenging the legitimacy of monarchies like Saudi Arabia. In response, Saudi Arabia bolstered its credentials as a Sunni powerhouse and guardian of the two holiest sites in Islam—Mecca and Medina.

Geopolitical and Strategic Rivalry:

Proxy Wars: Both nations have supported opposing sides in various regional conflicts. Examples include the civil wars in Yemen (Iran backs the Houthi rebels, while Saudi Arabia supports the government) and Syria (Iran supports the Assad regime, while Saudi Arabia has backed various rebel groups).
Energy and Economics: Both countries are major oil producers. Tensions have occasionally surfaced in OPEC meetings over oil production levels and pricing strategies.

Israel and the Regional Balance:

Iran’s Stance on Israel: The Islamic Republic of Iran has been vocally anti-Israel since its inception in 1979. Iran backs groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which are in conflict with Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s Historical Stance: Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has not recognized Israel, reflecting the broader Arab stance stemming from the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Changing Dynamics: However, in recent years, the regional threat perception has shifted. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel view Iran’s growing regional influence, especially its nuclear program, as a significant threat. This shared concern has led to a quiet rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, although official diplomatic relations have not been established. The Abraham Accords, brokered by the U.S. in 2020, in which several Arab nations normalized ties with Israel, indicates a shifting regional dynamic, where countering Iran’s influence is becoming a priority for a coalition of states.

Turkey- Saudi Arabia Tussle To Gain Leadership Of The Islamic World

The leadership tussle between Turkey and Saudi Arabia can be seen as a competition for influence and dominance in the Muslim world, driven by historical legacies, economic interests, and geopolitical strategies. While both nations have periods of cooperation based on mutual interests, underlying rivalries continue to shape the regional landscape, impacting alliances, conflicts, and the broader geopolitics of the Middle East.

Historical Background:

Ottoman Empire Era: Historically, much of the Arabian Peninsula, including parts of present-day Saudi Arabia, was under the control of the Ottoman Empire. The rise of the House of Saud in the 18th and 19th centuries came with tensions between the Ottomans and the Sauds, especially given the former’s attempts to assert control over the region.
20th Century: After the fall of the Ottoman Empire following World War I, modern-day Turkey and Saudi Arabia emerged as separate nation-states. For much of the 20th century, both nations had relatively cordial relations, as both were pro-Western and aligned against the spread of communism.

Leadership Ambitions:

Turkey: Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, aiming to revive its historical role as a significant player in the Muslim world. Erdoğan’s vision of “neo-Ottomanism” seeks to expand Turkey’s influence in regions that were once under Ottoman control.
Saudi Arabia: As the birthplace of Islam and guardian of its holiest sites (Mecca and Medina), Saudi Arabia has long seen itself as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. This role has been further cemented by its vast oil wealth and the influence it wields through organizations like OPEC.

Points of Conflict and Cooperation:

Arab Spring: During the Arab Spring, Turkey and Saudi Arabia initially supported many of the same movements and uprisings, particularly in their opposition to the Assad regime in Syria. However, they soon found themselves on opposite sides in other contexts. For example, in Egypt, Turkey supported the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohamed Morsi, while Saudi Arabia backed the military coup led by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Qatar Crisis: In 2017, Saudi Arabia, along with several other Arab countries, imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism. Turkey, on the other hand, sided with Qatar, even sending troops and food supplies to the embattled country.
Jamal Khashoggi Incident: Relations between the two countries took a downturn following the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkey accused high-ranking Saudi officials of orchestrating the murder, straining ties considerably.

Regional Dynamics:

Leadership in the Muslim World: Both nations have sought to sponsor and support initiatives, institutions, and media outlets to project their influence across the Muslim world.
Proxy Conflicts: Both nations have sometimes found themselves supporting opposing sides in regional conflicts, as seen in Libya, where Turkish-backed forces have clashed with factions supported by Saudi Arabia and its allies.

Non-State Actors and Organizations in Muslim World:

Non-state actors in the Muslim world, particularly in the Middle East, have played pivotal roles in shaping regional dynamics. While they operate independently of formal state structures, their actions and affiliations, often with powerful state sponsors like Iran, have lasting geopolitical implications. These actors have the power to initiate conflicts, shift balances of power, and influence state policies, making them indispensable players in understanding the intricacies of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

(Non-state actors are entities that participate in international relations and have significant political influence, but they do not belong to any established state structure. They can range from militant groups to NGOs, from multinational corporations to transnational advocacy networks.)

Alignment with Sunni or Shia Groups:

Hezbollah:
- Nature: Hezbollah is a Shia political and militant group based in Lebanon. Founded in 1982 in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, it has grown into a significant political, military, and social force in the country.
- Support: Iran, a Shia-majority nation, is Hezbollah’s primary patron, providing financial, military, and logistical support. This assistance strengthens Iran’s influence in the Levant region.
- Activities: Beyond its military activities, Hezbollah operates social services, hospitals, and educational facilities in Lebanon.
Hamas:
- Nature: Hamas is a predominantly Sunni Palestinian political and militant group. It was founded in 1987 during the First Intifada (Palestinian uprising) against Israeli rule.
- Support: While Hamas is Sunni, it has received support from Shia-majority Iran, demonstrating that geopolitical considerations sometimes override sectarian affiliations.
- Activities: Hamas is best known for its resistance against Israel, but it also runs social services and has been the de facto governing authority in the Gaza Strip since 2007.

Iran’s Influence through Non-State Actors:

Strategy: Iran has consistently leveraged non-state actors to expand its regional influence, counter its adversaries, and bypass its relative conventional military inferiority, especially in comparison to regional rivals and the U.S.
Other Affiliations: Besides Hezbollah and Hamas:
- Yemen: Iran supports the Houthi rebels, a Zaidi Shia group, in their fight against the Yemeni government backed by a Saudi-led coalition.
- Iraq: Iran has ties to several Shia militias and political groups in Iraq. Post-2003, after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, these militias played critical roles in the country’s security and politics.
- Syria: Iran has supported the Assad regime, primarily Alawite (a Shia offshoot), against various rebel factions. It has done so directly and through non-state actors, like the Fatemiyoun Brigade.

Geopolitical Impact:

Regional Tensions: Iran’s support for non-state actors has often led to tensions with other countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States.
Proxy Conflicts: Many of the Middle East’s conflicts have become proxy battles, with regional and global powers supporting opposing sides. Non-state actors, backed by countries like Iran, play significant roles in these conflicts, further complicating the regional geopolitical landscape.

Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA)

The formation of the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) is a testament to the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, where countering Iran’s influence has become a unifying objective for several Sunni-majority nations. While the alliance represents a consolidated approach to shared security concerns, its effectiveness will depend on the ability of its member states to overcome internal differences and commit to collective goals.

Initiation: The concept of MESA started to gain traction around 2017 and 2018, with the United States playing a pivotal role in promoting this alliance. The primary objective is to counter Iran’s influence and activities in the region.
Members: MESA’s potential members include the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, in addition to Egypt and Jordan.
Strategic Goals:
- Military and Security Cooperation: By creating a cohesive military front, MESA aims to deter Iranian aggression and its support for non-state actors in the region.
- Economic Integration: While the primary focus is on security, there are also talks of economic cooperation and integration amongst MESA countries to strengthen the alliance further.
- Diplomatic Unity: Presenting a united front on diplomatic issues can amplify the voice of MESA nations in regional and global platforms.

Significance in the Shia-Sunni Rivalry:

Sunni Coalition: MESA solidifies the formation of a major Sunni block, further emphasizing the regional divide between the Shia-led Iran and the Sunni-majority states.
Countering Non-State Actors: Given Iran’s significant influence through non-state actors like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various militias in Iraq, MESA represents a collective attempt to curb these influences.
Balancing Power: The alliance can serve as a counterbalance to the growing influence of Iran in the region, especially in countries like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Challenges To MESA:

Internal Disputes: Despite shared concerns about Iran, member states of the proposed MESA have had their disagreements. The most notable is the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt starting in 2017 due to Qatar’s alleged support for extremist groups and ties with Iran.
Effectiveness: While the idea of an “Arab NATO” sounds promising on paper, the diverse interests, capabilities, and priorities of the potential member states can pose challenges to its efficacy.

Pakistan- An Insignificant Player In Muslim World

Despite being the second-largest Muslim-majority country by population, its geopolitical influence within the Islamic world is limited. This is due, in large part, to its economic challenges and frequent dependency on foreign aid. Indeed, its unique distinction as the sole Muslim nation with nuclear capabilities underscores its strategic importance, yet this hasn’t translated into significant leadership within the Muslim world. Increasingly, observers have noted Pakistan’s growing reliance on China, especially with projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This reliance, coupled with regular financial bailouts from international bodies and nations, often frames it as a country more receptive to external influence. Furthermore, its longstanding rivalry with India, which has been cultivating closer ties with key Gulf nations in recent years, seems to exacerbate its relative isolation. Thus, while Pakistan remains an essential player in South Asian geopolitics, its role and influence within the broader Islamic world seem to be overshadowed by its challenges and external dependencies.

Conclusion

The Middle East, with its vast reserves of energy, strategic geopolitical location, and millennia-old histories, is a crucible where ancient grievances meet modern political machinations. The profound Shia-Sunni divide, far from being merely theological, has morphed into a strategic rivalry, with nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia at the forefront. Simultaneously, ambitions for regional leadership drive newer competitions, such as those between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The landscape is further complicated by non-state actors, whose allegiances and actions add layers to the overarching state rivalries. In this complex web, initiatives like MESA emerge as attempts to counterbalance perceived threats and consolidate influence. However, to truly comprehend the Middle East, one must recognize that beneath the visible rivalries lie deeper currents of culture, economics, and social dynamics. As history unfolds, it’s essential to approach these rivalries not as isolated events but as interconnected pieces of a larger, evolving puzzle. The future of the region will undoubtedly be shaped by how these rivalries are navigated, both within the Muslim world and by the international community.