Story Brunch
India and Pakistan,two neighboring hostile nuclear powers have been in constant conflict since the birth of Pakistan on communal lines after division of India at the eve of Independence from the British occupation,in 1947. Both the countries have a shared history,till 1947.
The Indo-Pak border is the most sensitive zone in the world,and presence of China ,another powerful nuclear country hostile to India worsens the situation. Both India and Pakistan have gone to war 4 times,Pakistan receiving crushing defeat everytime, temporary peace returning to the border after post-war agreements,but a part of Kashmir srill remains under Pakistani occupation and the cross firings have been a norm in the border areas.
So the big question which arises is,will there ever be peace between both the countries?
Unfortunately ,the answer is No.
Despite Track I, Track II diplomacy, plethora of peace agreements ,there will never be peace between both the nations,in near future.
Why cannot there be peace?
To understand it,we need to know the power dynamics in Pakistan .Pakistani army has always been in consistent quest to dislodge the elected governments in Pakistan.
In 1955,when Pakistan joined US leaning military group- CENTO-the Pakistani Army gained further dominance over the civilian government in matters of international affairs, though a coup had been attempted even earlier,during Liaqat Ali Khan’s tenure as the first PM of Pakistan.
The Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), originally known as the Baghdad Pact or the Middle East Treaty Organisation (METO), was a military alliance of the Cold War. It was formed in 1955 by Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and the United Kingdom and dissolved in 1979.
In later years,Pakistan spent several decades under the military rule (1958 – 1971, 1977 – 1988, 1999 – 2008).
Civilian governments in Pakistan,specially the Imran Khan’s govt, are a just a facade to not attract international criticism and sanctions.
An army is prominent in internal dynamics more than civilian govt only in a case where they can project,or there is really a big existential threat and people see them as saviors of the nation. India , being a Hindu majority nation and more powerful,wealthier and a larger country,suits the Pakistan army’s agenda to keep internal society occupied with the concept of an enemy always in wait to demolish them .
Projecting Afghanistan or Iran as permanent enemies won’t serve the agenda because of 2 nations-
First reason is that both are Islamic countries and constant conflict against them will go against the idea of Islamic brotherhood,hence it won’t get much support from all Islamic nations.In case of India,they project India as a Hindu civilisation to bring communal appeal,ignoring the fact that India has more Muslims than Pakistan.
Second reason is that both other countries are smaller compared to India. When enemy is more powerful and an institution is taking on it,it garners more prestige in public view. In case of Iran and Afghanistan,it will also be seen as bullying by a nuclear power,while in case of India,Pakistan can play a victim card in front of international audience.
What will permanent peace with India mean for Pakistan?
Apart from all the positives,one of the big consequences will be the cut in defence budget of Pakistan,less funds available to Army generals and other officers for misappropriation. A major chunk of the defence budget currently goes in amassing tremendous wealth and building big fortunes of the corrupt Army men and ISI.
These officers form a big feudal class in modern Pakistan,similar to mansabdars of Mughal era. The pound of flesh they extract right now from common Pakistani taxpayers’ in the name of national security will stop.
Which powerful club of elites has ever let go off power and prestige from its hands so easily ?
Specially in a situation in which just a single bullet fired across the border can preserve the whole feudal establishment.
So, we see that the problem does not lie at the border but within the internal social power dynamics of Pakistan.
China Angle
China is a strategic ally of Pakistan,whom Pakistan fondly calls an ‘all weather friend’. With US aid to Pakistan gradually reducing, Pakistan will become more dependent on China for survival.China has already made inroads into Pakistani territory through it’s CPEC project. China being hostile to India,will use Pakistani army and ISI to prickle India often in return of aids and investments. Increasing dependency on China will only further worsen the situation and Pakistan will act like a hired ‘ goon’ at the whims of Chinese CPC.
If we combine all the factors at play,we do not see permanent peace happening between India and Pakistan.
Is there any solution for Peace?
There does not exist a problem in the world without a solution.
In this case too there are few solutions for permanent peace with India.
An internal revolution led by civilians against the feudal lords of Army and ISI followed by permanent dominance of a sane civilian government solely focused on betterment of Pakistani awam is the solution. Returning occupied areas of Kashmir to India peacefully can be the starting point for such a government in direction of peace .Highly improbable scenario.
Another solution is bankruptcy of Pakistan, so that the Pakistani army does not have any advantage ,in the form of funds, in keeping the border boiling. Mere existence should look more lucrative.After all,even China can support Pakistan financially to an extent and won’t hesitate in ditching once it sees it as an overall economic liability.
Narendra Modi govt in India has been quite successful in international isolation of Pakistan and only a handful of countries now openly support it,namely Turkey, China and Malaysia .
