Story Brunch
Introduction
Bangladesh has recently experienced a dramatic political upheaval that culminated in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country after 15 years in power. The seeds of this crisis were sown over years of growing resentment against Hasina’s authoritarian style, coupled with economic mismanagement that fueled widespread discontent. The situation escalated when student protests against the government’s controversial quota system for the families of freedom fighters morphed into a broader anti-government movement. These protests, exacerbated by economic grievances, were seized upon by the CIA and other Western actors, who had grown increasingly dissatisfied with Hasina’s independent foreign policy, particularly her close ties with China and India. In this volatile environment, the protests became a tool for regime change, leading to the dramatic fall of one of South Asia’s most enduring political figures.
The Historical Roots of Bangladesh’s Political Crisis
The Birth of Bangladesh and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
The roots of Bangladesh’s current crisis can be traced back to its tumultuous birth in 1971. Under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the nation won its independence from Pakistan after a brutal war that left deep scars on its society. Mujib, as he was affectionately known, became the country’s first prime minister, but his administration quickly faced challenges. The aftermath of the war brought economic hardship, and Mujib’s attempt to consolidate power by establishing a one-party state under the Bangladesh Krishak Sramik Awami League (BAKSAL) in 1975 alienated many, leading to his assassination in a military coup the same year.
Military Rule and the Rise of the BNP
Following Mujib’s assassination, Bangladesh endured nearly two decades of military rule, with General Ziaur Rahman emerging as a key figure. Zia, who founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in 1978, sought to distance the country from Mujib’s legacy and shifted its foreign policy closer to the Islamic world, which was a significant departure from Mujib’s secular and socialist vision. Zia was assassinated in 1981, but the BNP remained a dominant force in Bangladeshi politics, with his widow Khaleda Zia later becoming the party’s leader and serving multiple terms as prime minister.
The Awami League‘s Return and the Battle for Power
The political rivalry between Sheikh Hasina, Mujib’s daughter, and Khaleda Zia defined much of Bangladesh’s modern history. After the fall of military dictator Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 1990, the Awami League and BNP alternated in power, but elections were frequently marred by violence and allegations of rigging. The 1996 election, which brought Sheikh Hasina to power, was only possible after the institution of a caretaker government to oversee the polls—a mechanism later removed by Hasina’s government in 2011, setting the stage for future electoral crises.
The Legacy of 2007-2008 Military-Backed Caretaker Government
The political landscape was further complicated by the 2007-2008 military-backed caretaker government, which sought to root out corruption and restore order after intense political strife between the Awami League and BNP. Both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia were briefly imprisoned during this period, but the military’s attempt to engineer a new political order ultimately failed. Hasina returned to power in 2009 after winning the election, but her subsequent consolidation of power through the removal of the caretaker government provision led to deepening polarization.
Sheikh Hasina’s Authoritarian Turn
Since returning to power, Sheikh Hasina had increasingly relied on authoritarian tactics to maintain control, mirroring the one-party state ambitions of her father. The removal of the caretaker government provision in 2011 meant that elections were now conducted under the sitting government, which critics argued undermined the credibility of the electoral process. The 2014 and 2018 elections, both boycotted by the BNP and marred by allegations of rigging, deepened the crisis of legitimacy in Bangladeshi politics.
The Role of Islamism and External Influences
The historical interplay between secularism and Islamism in Bangladesh’s politics has also played a crucial role. Ziaur Rahman’s promotion of Islam as a central element of Bangladeshi identity contrasted sharply with Mujib’s secular vision, leading to a lingering ideological conflict. This conflict has been exploited by external powers, notably Pakistan’s ISI and more recently China, which have sought to influence Bangladesh’s political trajectory in line with their strategic interests.
The unresolved tensions from the past created fertile ground for the crisis leading to Sheikh Hasina‘s dramatic fall from power.
The Economic Factors Behind Bangladesh’s Crisis
Beyond RMG: The Multifaceted Growth Drivers
Bangladesh’s economic growth story is often simplified as being driven primarily by the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector. While RMG exports have indeed played a crucial role, they represent only one aspect of the country’s economic transformation. In reality, Bangladesh’s growth was driven by a combination of factors that together created a more complex and resilient economy.
Agricultural Revolution and Rising Rural Incomes
The first major driver of growth was the agricultural sector, particularly with the introduction of High-Yielding Variety (HYV) rice in the 1970s and 1980s. This agricultural revolution not only secured food self-sufficiency for Bangladesh but also led to significant increases in rural incomes. As these incomes grew, they stimulated demand for a wide range of goods and services in rural areas, sparking the development of the rural non-farm economy. This sector includes small-scale manufacturing, trade, and services, all of which benefited from the increased purchasing power of rural households.
The Role of Remittances
Another significant factor contributing to Bangladesh’s economic growth was the steady flow of remittances from millions of Bangladeshis working abroad, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. These remittances, which have consistently been one of the largest sources of foreign exchange for the country, further bolstered rural incomes and provided a financial cushion that spurred local economic activities. The influx of remittance income helped families invest in housing, education, and small businesses, creating a multiplier effect throughout the economy.
Rise of Domestic Market-Oriented Industries
Starting in the late 1990s, as incomes continued to rise, Bangladesh saw the emergence of a robust domestic market-oriented industrial sector. Unlike the export-driven RMG sector, these industries catered primarily to the growing domestic demand for goods such as consumer products, construction materials, and food processing. The expansion of this sector provided a new avenue for economic growth and diversification, making the economy less reliant on any single sector.
The Education-Employment Mismatch
The rise in incomes and the improved economic situation also led to a significant increase in university enrollment over the past two decades. The higher education sector expanded rapidly as more young people sought to improve their prospects through tertiary education. However, this surge in educated youth was not matched by adequate job creation in the private sector, leading to a growing problem of unemployment, particularly among graduates. The economy’s inability to absorb this educated workforce has exacerbated social tensions and contributed to the current political instability.
Economic Mismanagement and Crisis
While these growth drivers brought Bangladesh to the status of a lower-middle-income country, recent economic mismanagement, exacerbated by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war, have revealed underlying vulnerabilities. Rising inflation, a growing trade deficit, and declining foreign reserves have combined to create a severe economic crisis. The government’s response, marked by denial and inadequate policy measures, has only deepened public discontent.
Anti- Quota Protests
Origins of the Quota Protests
The quota system in Bangladesh, particularly the 30% reservation for the descendants of freedom fighters from the 1971 War of Independence, has been a long-standing issue in the country. The system was initially introduced to honor those who contributed to Bangladesh’s liberation. However, over the years, it has sparked controversy, especially among students and job seekers who felt that the system was outdated and unfair.
In April 2018, widespread protests erupted after students and job seekers demanded the reduction or abolition of these quotas in government jobs, arguing that they limited opportunities for the majority of candidates. The protests, primarily led by university students, quickly gained momentum, drawing thousands of participants across the country. The government initially responded with a crackdown, which only intensified the protests.
Following the protests in 2018, Sheikh Hasina scrapped these quotas, but petitions were filed by descendants of war veterans. The situation escalated in June 2024 when the High Court reinstated the quotas, only for the Supreme Court to reduce them to 5% on August 1. This led to violent protests, with a severe crackdown resulting in 300 deaths over a month, and anti-quota agitation turned into anti-government protests within no time.
Sheikh Hasina’s Closeness with India: An Eye Sore for Pakistan
Sheikh Hasina’s strong ties with India had been both a cornerstone of her foreign policy and a significant vulnerability exploited by her opponents. While this relationship has brought economic and security benefits to Bangladesh, it also led to accusations that Hasina is overly dependent on India, prioritizing Indian interests over Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
The Teesta River Dispute
A key issue that has been used to fuel this narrative is the ongoing Teesta River dispute. The Teesta River is crucial for irrigation in northern Bangladesh, where it supports the livelihoods of millions of farmers. However, the allocation of its waters has been a contentious issue between India and Bangladesh for decades.
In 2011, both countries appeared close to signing an agreement that would have allocated 42.5% of the Teesta’s waters to India and 37.5% to Bangladesh, with the remaining 20% left as environmental flow. However, the deal fell through at the last minute due to opposition from the West Bengal state government in India, led by Mamata Banerjee, who argued that the agreement would harm her state’s interests.
This failure to secure a favorable deal on the Teesta had been a significant blow to Hasina’s domestic credibility. Her inability to resolve the dispute had been portrayed by her opponents as evidence that she was unable or unwilling to stand up to India. This narrative had been particularly potent given the importance of the Teesta waters to Bangladesh’s agricultural sector and the livelihood of millions.
The perception of Hasina as an “Indian stooge” was actively exploited by external powers like Pakistan’s ISI. ISI has long sought to weaken India‘s influence in South Asia and had supported narratives that undermine Hasina’s credibility.
The Big Question- Was USA involved in ouster of Sheikh Hasina?
Is there a China angle?
The potential involvement of the United States in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh can be seen through lens of USA’s geopolitical interests. The US has historically had a complicated relationship with Bangladesh, largely influenced by its broader regional interests, particularly its ties with Pakistan and concerns about China’s growing influence.
Strategic Interests and Concerns Over China
Sheikh Hasina’s strong ties with China were central to her administration’s foreign policy, marked by extensive cooperation in infrastructure, trade, and defense. Significant Chinese investments in Bangladesh, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cemented this relationship, making China Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and primary arms supplier. These close ties likely raised concerns in Washington, where the U.S. viewed Bangladesh’s alignment with China as a threat to its strategic interests in South Asia. Hasina’s rejection of joining the QUAD might have further exacerbated US frustrations. This proximity to China must have irked the U.S., contributing to its decision to support or orchestrate a regime change in Bangladesh to curb Beijing’s influence in the region.
Diplomatic Tensions and Signs of Discontent
The US’s dissatisfaction with Sheikh Hasina’s administration became more evident over the years. The US criticized the fairness of the elections in 2014 and 2018 and imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force in 2021. These actions were signals of the US’s declining confidence in Hasina’s government. Additionally, the US’s decision not to invite Bangladesh to the democracy summits and Hasina’s allegations of a US-led regime change agenda indicated a growing rift.
Involvement of US Diplomacy in Political Opposition
The US envoy’s meetings with families of victims of forced disappearances, predominantly from opposition groups like BNP, along with calls for inclusive and fair elections, suggest that the US might have been positioning itself in support of political forces opposing Hasina. This support could have emboldened these opposition forces, contributing to the unrest that ultimately led to Hasina’s downfall.
Historical Grievances and Geopolitical Rivalry
The US’s historical alignment with Pakistan and its complex legacy in the region, dating back to the 1971 War of Liberation, provides a deeper context for its actions. The US’s support for Pakistan during the war and its subsequent ties with Islamist elements like Jamaat-e-Islami, who played a role in the protests against Hasina, reveal long-standing geopolitical motives that may have influenced the situation in Bangladesh.
Geoeconomic Considerations
The Bay of Bengal’s unexplored hydrocarbon resources add another layer to the US’s interest in the region. The possibility that a favorable regime in Bangladesh could help the US manage or control these resources, particularly against the backdrop of India’s increasing energy independence, underscores the economic motivations behind the US’s potential involvement.
Aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s Departure: A Nation in Turmoil
The departure of Sheikh Hasina has plunged Bangladesh into a state of chaos and violence, with radical elements like Jamaat-e-Islami swiftly filling the power vacuum. These groups, long marginalized under Hasina’s secular government, have now seized the opportunity to impose their extremist agenda, with the backing of Pakistan’s ISI. The country is witnessing a terrifying surge in violence, particularly against minority communities, including Hindus, who are being targeted in horrific acts of brutality.
Attacks on Minorities: A Humanitarian Crisis
In the wake of Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh’s radical factions have unleashed a wave of terror against Hindu communities. There are reports of widespread attacks on temples, with these sacred sites being desecrated and destroyed. Hindu men have been brutally murdered in the streets, often in front of their families, as these extremist groups seek to purge the country of non-Muslim influences. The situation for Hindu women is even more dire; many have been kidnapped, raped, and forced into marriages with their captors.
The violence has not been confined to the major cities but has spread across rural areas, with little to no intervention from the weakened state apparatus. These atrocities have sparked a mass exodus, with thousands of Hindus desperately trying to flee to India, creating a burgeoning refugee crisis. However, the international community has been disturbingly silent, with little to no action taken to protect these vulnerable populations or to hold the perpetrators accountable.
Hindus in Bangladesh have traditionally been the votebank of Hasina’s Awami League due to it’s comparatively more secular credentials than BNP and that’s also a factor why Hindus are being targeted after fall of Awami League government.
Economic Collapse and Loss of Stability
The violence and instability following Hasina’s departure are not just a humanitarian disaster but also a severe blow to Bangladesh’s economy. Under Hasina’s leadership, the country had enjoyed years of economic growth and stability, transforming into one of South Asia’s most promising economies. However, the recent upheaval threatens to undo all these gains.
Investors may flee, and businesses may shut down as the security situation deteriorates. The radical takeover will make Bangladesh a less attractive destination for foreign investment, with companies pulling out their operations and international partners reconsidering their engagements. The collapse of law and order, combined with the rise of extremist forces, spells disaster for the country’s economic future.
The loss of economic stability is expected to lead to widespread poverty and unemployment, exacerbating the already dire situation. With the country descending into chaos, the prospects for recovery seem bleak, and the effects of this revolution are likely to resonate for years, if not decades. The international community’s failure to intervene early may result in a prolonged crisis that could destabilize the entire region.
In summary, the fall of Sheikh Hasina has opened the door for radical elements to take control, leading to unprecedented violence against minorities and a potential collapse of Bangladesh’s economy. The world must act now to prevent further bloodshed and to support those fleeing this nightmare, or risk witnessing the complete unraveling of a once-promising nation.
FAQs
- What caused Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country?
- What were the roots of Bangladesh’s current political crisis?
- How did Bangladesh win its independence from Pakistan?
- What challenges did Sheikh Mujibur Rahman face after Bangladesh’s independence?
- What led to the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman?
- Who was General Ziaur Rahman, and what role did he play in Bangladesh’s history?
- What were the key differences between the policies of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and General Ziaur Rahman?
- What is the significance of the political rivalry between Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia?
- How did the 2007-2008 military-backed caretaker government impact Bangladesh’s political landscape?
- What were the consequences of Sheikh Hasina’s removal of the caretaker government provision?
- How have secularism and Islamism influenced Bangladesh’s political history?
- What external forces have influenced Bangladesh’s political crisis?
- What were the main drivers of Bangladesh’s economic growth besides the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector?
- How did the agricultural revolution contribute to Bangladesh’s economic growth?
- What role did remittances play in Bangladesh’s economic development?
- How did the rise of domestic market-oriented industries impact Bangladesh’s economy?
- What challenges arose from the education-employment mismatch in Bangladesh?
- How did economic mismanagement contribute to the current crisis in Bangladesh?
